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Key Economic Reports for Bitcoin: Major Market Drivers

The economic data reports listed below are the most watched ones in the forex market. When these reports come out, they make the market move quickly, meaning currency values and things like Bitcoin will change. How much they change depends on how important each report is: reports with three exclamation marks cause the most movement, then those with two, and then those with one.

Most investors tend to trade news marked with two or three exclamation points as these reports frequently generate significant market movements ranging between $100 and $200.

The news that traders watch is listed below, and reports on the numbers in the news can be found in a Financial Economic Calendar.

Employment Report

  • Importance: !!!
  • Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
  • News Report Release Time: First Friday of the month at 8:30 EST, reports info for the prior month

The employment data report survey produces the Non Farm payrolls, Average Work Week, & Average Hourly Earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the pay-roll period.

Non-Farm PayrollsThe most vital information included in the employment report overall, and especially in the establishment survey, is Non-Farm Payrolls. As the name suggests, Non-Farm Payrolls counts the number of people on the payrolls of all businesses that are not related to farming. The changes in the payrolls each month can change a lot, sometimes being different by more than 200,000 from one month to the next. Non-Farm Payrolls, or NFP numbers, give the most up-to-date and complete view of the economic situation. This is a way to measure the American middle class, and this number shows people who have money and are willing to spend it. The American economy is greatly supported by consumer spending, with about 75% of the GDP coming from consumers, so higher Non-Farm Payrolls mean more consumers.

Average Work Week (or just “hours worked”) is actually a pretty important indicator from the establishment survey, even though a lot of people overlook it. The average number of hours employees put in on Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) tells you a lot about industrial production and personal income for any given month.

Average Hourly EarningsThe last fundamental indicator from the establishment survey which is worthy of close inspection is the Hourly Average Earnings, which's important for two explanations. Alongside total man-hours, the average earnings figure gives us a good indication of personal income expansion during that month. Second, the earnings figures are closely watched during periods of strong economic growth for evidence of increasing wage pressures.

Unemployment Rate: This is the percent of people who can work and are looking for jobs. It's based on a monthly survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from the total group of employable people.

An unemployment rate between 4% and 6% counts as healthy. Rates below that can spark inflation from rising wages. Higher rates may cut consumer spending.

Jobless Claims - A weekly report with data on the number of people who signed up and applied for unemployment insurance for the first time. This important basic indicator, and especially its four-week average, shows the employment situation in the job market.

Jobless claims offer insight into labor market strength. Fewer people filing for unemployment benefits means more individuals are employed, providing valuable information about the economic environment for traders.

Virtually every occupation yields an income, granting households the capacity to spend. This expenditure fuels the economy's operations and promotes growth: consequently, stronger job creation correlates with a healthier economic climate.

Jobless claims give investors a sense of the job market's health. High wage growth often signals rising interest rates. That can push down bond and stock prices. Smart investors who follow claims adjust their portfolios early and benefit. Fewer claims mean stronger hiring. More claims point to weaker job growth.

Gross Domestic Product - GDP

  • Importance: !!!
  • Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
  • News Report Release Time: Third or fourth week of the month at 8:30 EST for the previous quarter

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as the most comprehensive gauge of economic activity. The quarterly percentage changes, expressed on an annualized basis, indicate the expansion pace of the total economic output. These figures can exhibit considerable fluctuation between successive quarters. Swings in inventory levels and net exports, in particular, are capable of inducing substantial GDP volatility. The final sales metric, which excludes inventories, can sometimes illuminate underlying expansionary patterns because inventories represent unsold merchandise: thus, a large inventory increase inflates the GDP but might signal fragility rather than robustness. The fundamental elements composing GDP are: consumption, investment, net exports, government expenditures, and inventories. Consumption constitutes the most substantial portion by a significant margin, accounting for two-thirds of the total GDP.

Retail Sales report

  • Importance: !!!
  • Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
  • News Report Release Time: 8:30 EST around the 13th of the month (data for one month prior).

The retail sales data report is a measure of the total receipts of the retail stores. The changes in the sales data are widely followed as the most timely trading indicator of broad consumer spending patterns. Retail sales are often viewed ex-autos, because the auto sales numbers can vary sharply from month to month. It is also crucial to keep a close watch on the gas and food components, because changes in these two reports are often a result of price change rather than changing consumer demand.

Retail sales can be quite volatile and the advance reports are subject to rather large revisions. Retail sales do not include spending on services, which makes up over half of the total consumption. Total personal consumption isn't available until the personal income and consumption reports are released, typically 2 weeks after the retail sales reports.

Housing Starts & Building Permits

  • Importance: !!!
  • Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce
  • News Report Release Time: 8:30 EST around the 16th of the month (data for one month prior).

Housing Starts quantify the quantity of new residential units for which construction commenced during a given month. The initiation of construction is defined as the point where excavation for a building's foundation begins, primarily encompassing residential housing projects. Building permits are authorizations required before excavation work can proceed. Typically, an increase in both building permits and housing starts manifests a couple of months following a reduction in mortgage interest rates. Permits tend to precede starts, but since permits are not mandatory across all regions of the nation, the volume of permits issued often lags slightly behind the actual volume of starts over time.

Existing Home Sales

  • Importance: !!
  • Source: National Association of Realtors.
  • News Report Release Time: 10:00 EST around the 2fifth of the month (data for the month prior).

The name says it all. This report tracks sales of existing homes. It gauges housing market action well. Housing stats come first each month. But those focus on supply, not demand. Existing home sales lead other demand signals like new home sales. This makes the report stand out. Sales tie to mortgage rates. They lag rate changes by a few months. Pent-up demand also shapes sales. Right after a recession, sales surge from built-up needs.

Chicago PMI

  • Importance: !!!
  • Source: Chicago Purchasing Managers Association.
  • News Report Release Time: The last business day of the month at 10 EST for the ruling month.

Surveys from Philadelphia and Chicago are closely monitored due to their timely updates, reflecting a representative assessment of national manufacturing activity across significant regions.

Trade Balance - This metric represents a nation's net balance resulting from the exchange of goods (merchandise) and services. It encompasses items such as manufactured products, raw materials, agricultural outputs, as well as travel and transportation transactions.

This figure represents the disparity between the monetary value of goods and services a nation sells externally and the monetary value of goods and services it purchases from abroad.

If a country's exports exceed its imports, it has got a trade surplus & the balance is said to be positive. If imports exceed exports, the country has got a deficit and its trade balance is said to be negative.

A positive or negative balance usually shows how domestic product prices stack up against international ones. For export-heavy industries like autos, a positive balance means international demand is up - and that often leads to more jobs in the field.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), previously known as the National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM) and now referred to as the Institute for Supply Management, publishes a monthly composite index reflecting national manufacturing conditions. This index is derived from data concerning new orders, production levels, supplier delivery times, backlogs, inventories, pricing, employment figures, export orders, and import orders. It is categorized into manufacturing and non-manufacturing sub-indices.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average price level for a fixed set of capital and consumer goods purchased by producers, serving as a vital economic indicator.

PPI gauges price changes in the manufacturing industry sector. It measures average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers in the manufacturing, mining, agriculture, & electricity utility industries for their output.

Inflation at this producer level often gets passed through to the Consumer Price Index - CPI.

How inflation relates to interest rates is key to knowing how information like the PPI impacts the markets & what you put your money into.

The Philadelphia Fed Survey is a composite diffusion index tracking manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.

People track this survey for manufacturing trends. It links to the ISM survey and industrial output index.

The Philly Fed survey gives and generates a thorough look at the manufacturing industry sector, how busy it is & where things are headed. Because manufacturing is a major sector of the over-all economy, this report has got a big influence on the currency prices behavior.

Certain ancillary indices from the Philly Fed report also yield directional clues regarding commodity valuations and broader inflationary indicators.

Personal Income - This metric encompasses the total monetary value of earnings acquired by individuals from every conceivable source. Personal outlays, conversely, account for consumer expenditures on goods and services categorized as durable and non-durable.

Information concerning national income and expenditure serves as an additional practical metric for assessing the robustness of the prevailing economic climate and anticipating its near-term trajectory. Income empowers households with the capacity to either spend or save.

Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing. The consumption (outlays) part of the data report is even more directly tied to the economic environment, which we know normally dictate and influence how the markets perform.

What people spend their money on makes up two thirds of the entire economy, so knowing what people are buying gives you a strong sense of where the economy is going. Clearly, this gives traders a significant edge.

New home salesNew home sales - This is the number of new houses sold with a signed agreement during the month, indicating trends in housing prices.

This measurement serves as an indicator of housing demand and overall economic strength. People typically purchase houses when they feel confident and secure in their financial situation.

Additionally, this small piece of data has a large effect on the economic situation, and therefore on all markets and on your own investments.

By watching financial information such as new home sales, investors can get ideas for investments and advice for handling their portfolio.

Each new house build creates more construction jobs and income. This flows back into the economy.

Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. Trends in the new home sales info carry valuable/informative clues for the stocks of construction builders, mortgage lenders & furnishings firms.

Money supplyMoney supply - The monetary aggregates are alternative gauges of money supply by the measure of liquidity. Changes in monetary aggregate values illustrate thrust of the monetary policy and also the outlook for economic activity and inflationary pressures.

Monetary aggregates, categorized as M1, M2, and M3, were highly discussed topics years ago. These metrics showcased how tightly or loosely the Federal Reserve managed credit conditions in the broader economic environment.

The Fed sets target ranges for money supply growth. If actual growth moves outside those ranges, it often signals that the Fed will change interest rates soon.

Today, people understand monetary policy through the federal funds rate level. Ideas about money supply lost favor in the 1990s. This happened due to changes in the financial system and how the Fed handles policy.

The Federal Reserve is developing new tools to measure the money supply. As economic indicators rise and fall in popularity, it wouldn't be surprising to see monetary aggregates regain prominence in the future.

International trade tracks the gap between imports and exports of goods and services. The trade balance level, plus shifts in exports and imports, shows patterns in foreign trade.

Changes in what we bring in and send out, along with the gap between them, are helpful for understanding how the economy is doing here and in other countries. Also, this information can greatly affect all financial markets, especially the dollar's value.

Imports reflect local demand for foreign goods and services, while exports from the USA showcase demand for American products in international markets. The US dollar tends to be highly sensitive to fluctuations in the country's trade deficit, as this imbalance increases the need for foreign currencies.

This analysis shows a breakdown of USA trade with major nations too, which could help traders who want to broaden their investments internationally. As a clear illustration, a pattern of growing exports to a certain country might point to economic strength and chances for investment in that country.

Industrial production & capacity utilizationIndustrial production and capacity utilization - The Index of the Industrial Production is a chain-weight measure of the physical output of a nation's factories, mines & utilities.

Capacity use shows how resources get employed. Traders track economic health. It shapes how investments do overall.

Industrial production quantifies the output from factories, mines, and utility sectors. Given that the manufacturing industry constitutes a quarter of the entire economy, this report significantly affects currency price movements.

The capacity utilization rate measures how much of a factory's capacity is currently in use. When utilization exceeds 85%, it can lead to inflationary bottlenecks in production processes.

The Federal Reserve watches this report closely and sets interest rate policy on the basis of whether the production factors and aspects are threatening to cause inflation pressures.

The start of housing construction The number of houses for which building starts each month is measured by housing data. Unless they are reasonably certain that a property will sell at or before its competition, home developers do not begin construction.

Shifts in housing data reveal home demand and building sector health. Each new home start boosts construction jobs and adds money to the economy.

Construction spending tracks the dollar cost of new work. It covers homes, businesses, and public jobs. Data comes in regular dollars or adjusted for inflation.

Businesses only invest in building new factories or offices when they feel confident that demand is strong enough to make it worth it.

Home buyers do the same as investors. That's why building costs show the economy's speed well.

Consumer Confidence Index The Consumer Confidence Index measures how consumers perceive the current economic climate and what their expectations are for the future. This survey is conducted monthly by The Conference Board, collecting responses from five thousand consumers nationwide.

Consumer confidence ties directly to spending power. Spending makes up two-thirds of the economy. Markets watch closely to see what consumers do next and how they might act soon.

The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend.

This consumer attitude index reveals views on the economy. It shows sentiment there. Consumer confidence and retail sales do not match up each month.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - This index calculates the average cost of a standardized collection of goods and services typically bought by consumers. Monthly fluctuations in the CPI indicate the prevailing rate of inflation.

The CPI is the most followed fundamental indicator of inflation in the United States of America. Inflation is an overall increase in the price of goods and services. The relationship between inflation & interest rates is the key to understanding how data like the CPI influence the markets.

By tracking inflation trends - high or low, rising or falling - traders can figure out how different investments will perform.

Durable goods orderThe durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate & future delivery of factory hardwoods. Orders for durable goods show how busy the factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill the orders. The data not only provides insight to demand for things like refrigerators and cars, but also business investment going forward.

When corporations allocate more funds toward machinery and other capital goods, it clearly signals sustainable business expansion. Elevated spending on investment products paves the way for increased national production capacity and diminishes the risk of inflation. This provides traders with insights into expectations for the manufacturing sector, which constitutes a significant portion of the economy and therefore heavily influences their investment decisions.

Existing home salesExisting home sales - The No. of previously constructed homes with a closed sale during that month. Also known as home resales) are a large share of the market than new homes & indicate housing price trends. This provides a gauge and measure of not only demand for housing, but the economic force.

Individuals typically need to feel quite secure and assured in their fiscal standings before committing to buying a residence. Although subsequent home sales do not always generate new economic output, the finalization of a sale does generate commissions or revenue for the real estate agent involved.

Gross Domestic Product adds up all goods and services made inside a country, by local or outside firms. It tracks how fast the economy grows or drops. It's the main sign of output and progress. Traders watch the economy close since it shapes their trades' results.

The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the over-all economy, but tells traders about important trends within the big picture. GDP constituents like consumer spending, business & residential investments and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's under-currents, which can translate to investment opportunities & guidance in managing a portfolio.

Retail Prices IndexRetail Prices Index - The Retail Price Index measures how consumer prices are generally changing in the UK. It is the average change in prices for things people buy, used by most homes in the United Kingdom.

It is put together and comes out every month. After it is released, it is not changed. Retail Price Index has details about food and drinks, tobacco products, homes, things for the house and help provided, items for personal use and help provided, travel costs, car costs, clothes, and fun things and help provided.

Inflation metrics are essential for economists, businesses, and government entities. The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England determines interest rates in the UK based on a target inflation rate established by the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Retail Price Index directly impacts wage agreements, pensions, and benefit adjustments. Utility regulators also use this index to regulate price changes in various services.

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