Fundamental Economic Data Reports: Medium Market Movers !!

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Durable Goods Orders

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Source: The Census Bureau of Department of Commerce.
News Data Report Announcement Time: 8:30 EST around the 26^th of the month (data for the prior month).

The durable orders release estimates the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods and products (defined as those goods whose lifespan is three years or more). Orders are regarded and considered a leading trading indicator of manufacturing activity

Conference Board Consumer Confidence

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Source: The Conference Board.
News Data Report Announcement Time: 10:00 EST on the last Tuesday of the month (data for the current month).

The Conference Board runs a monthly survey of 5,000 households to measure consumer confidence. Their report sometimes helps spot sudden changes in buying habits, but most small moves in the index are just noise. You really only need to pay attention if the index changes by at least five points.

Industrial Production

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Source: Fed Reserve.
News Announcement Time: 9:15 ET around the 1fifth of the month (data for the month prior).

The index of Industrial Production is a fixed-weight measure of physical output of the factories in a country, mines, and utilities. Manufacturing production, the biggest constituent of the total, can be accurately forecasted using the total manufacturing hours worked from the employment report.

Initial Jobless Claims

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Source: The Employment & Training Administration of Department of Labor.
News Data Report Announcement Time: 8:30 EST each Thursday (data for the week ended prior Saturday).

Initial jobless claims measure and estimate how many people apply for state jobless benefits (the number of people without jobs). This report gives a quick, but sometimes misleading, view of how the economy is doing, with increases (decreases) in claims possibly meaning slower (faster) job growth.

Within this report, two supplementary economic data points are reported: the volume of individuals claiming state welfare and the rate of unemployment among the insured population: neither figure typically garners intense scrutiny from market participants. While certain analysts monitor the month-over-month fluctuations in state benefit claims as a proxy for gauging labor market expansion, this particular data series possesses a historically weak correlation with predicting the official monthly employment statistics. The insured unemployment rate exhibits minimal week-to-week variation and consequently rarely influences market dynamics.

International Trade

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Source: The Census Bureau & the Bureau of Economic Analysis of Department of Commerce.
News Data Report Announcement Time: 8:30 EST around the 20th of the month (data for two months prior).

Traders watch the full trade report for balance trends. Still, track exports and imports of goods and services. Export numbers hint at better home competition or stronger foreign economies. They help U.S. growth. Imports show home demand. But this report lags behind other spending data. It holds less value for that.

Monthly trade balance swings affect GDP predictions. Net exports vary a lot in GDP. The FX trade report offers the first hint each quarter on export results.

Producer Price Index - PPI

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
News Data Report Announcement Time: Around the 11th of every month at 8:30 EST for the prior month.

The Producer Price Index estimates prices of goods at the wholesale level. There are 3 broad sub-categories within PPI: crude, intermediate, and finished. The market keeps track of the finished goods & products index very closely, as it represents the prices for goods that are ready to be sold to the end user.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

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Source: The University of Michigan .
News Data Report Announcement Time: Preliminary: 10:00 ET on the second Friday of the month (data for current month): Final: 10:00 ET on the fourth Friday of the month (data for the current month).

The Michigan index is almost identical to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, though there are 2 monthly releases, a preliminary and final reading. Like the Conference Board index, it has two sub-indices - expectations & current conditions. The expectations index is a component of the Conference Board Leading Technical Indicators index.

Institute for Supply Management (ISM)

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), previously known as NAPM until January 2002, publishes the ISM Index, which measures national manufacturing conditions through a composite diffusion index.

Scores above 50% signal factory growth. Investors should watch economic health. It drives returns on different assets.

By tracking the economic date such as the ISM, investors will know what the economic environment is for the different markets. The ISM generates a thorough look at the manufacturing industry sector, how busy it is and where things are headed.

Since the manufacturing sector significantly contributes to cyclical fluctuations in the economy, this report has a notable impact on financial markets. Several ISM sub-indexes offer insights into commodity pricing and provide hints about potential inflationary trends.

The Federal Reserve pays close attention to this report, which helps them understand where interest rates might go when the data shows signs of inflation.

Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators - A composite index of 10 economic indicators which typically lead the overall economic activity.

Investors and Traders need to keep their tabs on the performance of the economic situation because it dictates how various different types of investments will perform.

By watching economic news like the index of leading indicators, traders can understand the economic situation for different markets.

The Leading Indicators index is aimed at forecasting changes in the economy, such as recessions and recoveries. Interestingly, stock prices are included as one of the primary technical indicators within this index.

Import and export prices

Import and export prices - The prices of goods that are brought into the United States of America but produced abroad & the market prices of goods sold abroad but produced locally and domestically.

These price metrics serve to indicate inflationary pressures affecting internationally traded commodities. Fluctuations in the costs associated with imports and exports provide a significant barometer for inflation both domestically and abroad. Furthermore, reports on this data can have a direct, immediate impact on markets such as bonds and the US dollar.

Escalating inflation results in elevated interest rates, which negatively impacts stock values. By monitoring inflationary indicators such as the cost of imports, traders can guard their investment holdings against this threat.

IFO Business Climate in industry and trade

IFO Business Climate in industry & trade - IFO Business Climate Index is an early indicator for economic development in Germany. Every month the IFO Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises in west and east Germany on their appraisals of the business environment (good/satisfactory/poor) & their expectations for the next six months (better/same/worse).

The answers are given importance based on how important the industry is, and then they are combined. The percentages of positive and negative answers to both questions are balanced, and then an average is calculated and split between east and west Germany. The series of averages that result are connected to a starting year (currently 1991) and adjusted for seasonal changes.

APICS Survey

APICS Survey - Composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions. The APICS survey generates a thorough look at the manufacturing industry sector.

This survey isn't as famous as the ISM, but it can also show which way production is going. The diffusion index doesn't always move the same way as the ISM index each month, but sometimes they do go in the same direction.

Manufacturing drives much of the economy, so traders sense the big picture for investments. A 50 reading means flat growth. Each 10-point rise hints at 4% more output.

Beige Book

The practice of district banks summarizing their regional economic conditions began in 1970 via the Beige Book. Initially termed the "Red Book," it was created solely for policymakers and was not intended for public viewing.

It was released to the public in 1983. To show this change, the cover color was updated, and it became known as the Beige Book.

The Beige Book is issued a fortnight ahead of every FOMC assembly, occurring eight times annually. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal evidence and insights regarding the prevailing economic climate within its respective district utilizing various means, such as reports sourced from banks and their branch managers, conducting interviews with prominent business figures, economists, and market specialists, alongside numerous other channels.

The Beige Book puts this info together by area and type of business. A general summary of the reports from the 12 areas is made by a chosen Fed Reserve Bank on a changing schedule. The data in the report is mostly seen as a sign of what the Fed might do at its next meeting.

Blue Book Report

The Blue Book - Released the day following the Green Book, the Blue Book provides the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members with the Board staff's assessment of monetary and financial progress spanning the months immediately surrounding the meeting in focus. Initially, each volume thoroughly examines recent shifts in key policy metrics, such as the Federal Funds rate, reserve forecasts, and monetary aggregates. Furthermore, the Blue Book lays out two or three distinct policy pathways considered viable for the forthcoming period between meetings. For the February and July sessions, the Blue Books are augmented with two supplementary chapters designed to aid the Committee's preparation for its Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. The first of these extra segments features extended-term projections, sketching out scenarios for the subsequent five to six years. This section also furnishes projections detailing the impact of varying assumptions regarding several elements - like fiscal strategy, the natural rate of unemployment, or the pace at which inflation expectations adjust - on the forecasted results. The second supplemental chapter, unique to the February and July Blue Books, presents differing annual targets for the projected growth of

Red Book - Published every Tuesday, this report presents the detail sales of some 30 US stores produce the previous week & compared & analyzed to the previous month. It's always a forecast that counts for the request for the households but a rather volatile measure taking into consideration the more or less significant months for the detail business.

Business Inventories

Business inventories indicate the dollar value of stock held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The inventory levels relative to sales serve as key indicators of near-term production activity trends in the market.

Investors and traders must watch the economic scene closely. It shapes how different investments do. Rising inventories often signal business hope for better sales soon.

By checking and studying the ratio of what companies have versus what they sell, investors can figure out if production needs to grow or shrink soon. The information about what businesses have in stock gives a helpful way to predict the future for understanding the economy.

Chain Stores Sales

Chain Stores Sales track monthly volumes from department, chain, discount, and apparel shops. Retailers report the data. It gauges retail activity and consumer spending.

Since consumer expenditure constitutes two-thirds of the overall economy, having insight into consumer actions offers a fairly reliable indicator of the future direction of the economic climate.

Sales are shown as how they change from the same month of the year before. It is key to know how good sales actually were a year ago to understand this year's sales. Also, sales are usually shown for "stores that have been open for a while" if companies combine.

Consumer sentiment

Consumer sentiment is gauged through surveys examining attitudes about both current economic conditions and expectations for future trends, commonly conducted by the University of Michigan.

5 hundred consumers are surveyed every month. Level of consumer sentiment is directly proportional to the power of consumer spending. Consumer spending contributes and accounts for a two thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to & how they might behave in the near future.

When consumers feel confident about the economy and their personal financial situation, they are more inclined to spend. This makes the consumer confidence index a valuable indicator for gauging the overall economic environment.

Fluctuations in consumer sentiment and retail sales do not necessarily align month by month.

Current account

The current account reflects a country's balance in international trade, including goods, services, and unilateral transfers. Analysts monitor its levels and trends in exports and imports as technical indicators of foreign trade conditions.

U.S. trade with foreign countries holds key clues to economic trends both here and abroad. The numbers can have a direct impact on all financial markets, especially the value of the US Dollar.

Factory orders

Factory orders track dollar value of new orders for durable and nondurable goods. This gives fuller details than the earlier durable goods report from mid-month.

The durable goods orders numbers show how busy factories will be in the months ahead as they work to complete the orders they have. This report shows how much demand there is for both long-lasting goods like fridges and cars, and also for things that don't last as long, like cigarettes and clothes.

Beyond new order placements, analysts keep a close watch on unfilled orders, which serve as an indicator of production backlogs. Shipment figures reveal the currently dominant sales activity, while inventory levels offer insight into the current and prospective strength of production output.

Overall, the report offers traders valuable insight into the manufacturing industry sector, a key economic component that significantly impacts investment decisions.

Green Book

The Green Book comes from Board of Governors staff five days before an FOMC meeting. It explains economic and financial data in two parts.

The green book's first section covers key U.S. economy shifts. It looks at growth, prices, rates, money flows, credit, and global ties from recent months or quarters.

This section gives forecasts for several variables over the next six to eight quarters. The second part of the green book digs into recent developments in more detail.

It covers trends in jobs, output, and prices. It also looks at factors that affect them. The section breaks down industries. It comments on areas like housing, car production, stock levels, and spending by federal, state, and local governments.

It reviews a range and variety of developments in the domestic financial markets, including credit patterns for banks, other financial intermediaries, non-financial businesses, and consumers.

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Furthermore, an examination and assessment of global affairs is conducted, featuring commentary on trade figures, cross-border financial movements, various markets, and economic activities across several international nations.

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