Fundamental Economic Data Reports: Medium Market Movers !!

Durable Goods Orders

• Importance: !!
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
• News Data Report Release Time: 8:30 EST around the 26th of the month (data for the prior month).

Durable goods orders track the value of orders, shipments, and backlogs for long-lasting items. These are products meant to last three years or longer. Such orders signal future manufacturing trends.

Conference Board Measures Consumer Confidence

• Importance: !!
• Source: The Conference Board.
• News Report Announcement Time: 10:00 EST on the last Tuesday of the month (data for current month).

The Conference Board compiles monthly data from surveys of 5,000 households to gauge levels of consumer confidence. While this report occasionally sheds light on abrupt changes in spending behavior, minor fluctuations in stock indices are typically dismissed as insignificant market noise. Only index changes of five points or more are considered noteworthy for broader analysis.

Industrial Production

• Importance: !!
• Source: Fed Reserve.
• News Report Release Time: 9:15 ET around the 15th of the month (data for month prior).

The Industrial Production index tracks output from factories, mines, and utilities. It uses fixed weights for physical goods. Manufacturing makes up the largest part. You can predict it from total hours worked in the employment report.

Initial Jobless Claims

• Importance: !!
• Source: The Employment & Training Administration of Department of Labor.
• News Report Announcement Time: 8:30 EST each Thursday (data report for the week ended prior Saturday).

Initial jobless claims track the total number of new applications for unemployment benefits, reflecting job losses. While somewhat imprecise at times, these statistics offer a prompt assessment of economic activity. An increase in claims may suggest slower employment growth, while a decline can indicate acceleration.

There are 2 other numbers in this report - the number of people getting money from the state and the rate of insured unemployment: the market doesn't pay much attention to either one. Some analysts watch the number of people getting state money each month to guess how job growth is doing, but this hasn't been very good at predicting the monthly job numbers. The insured unemployment rate doesn't change much each week and doesn't affect the market.

International Trade

• Importance: !!
• Source: The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis of Department of Commerce.
• News Report Announcement Time: 8:30 EST around the 20^th of the month (data for 2 months prior).

People watch the trade report closely for overall trade balance trends. But it's also important to watch trends in exports and imports of goods and services. Watching export info is key to seeing if America's economy is growing because it's getting more competitive or other countries are doing better. Imports show how much stuff people in the country want, but this report comes out late compared to other reports about what people are buying, so it's not very helpful for this.

How much the monthly trade balance changes can have a big effect on GDP predictions. Net exports often change a lot within the GDP, and the Gold trade report is the only early sign of how net exports are doing each quarter.

Producer Price Index - PPI

• Importance: !!
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
• News Data Report Release Time: Around the 11^th of each month at 8:30 EST for the prior month.

The Producer Price Index measures prices of goods at the wholesale level. There are 3 broad subcategories within PPI: crude, intermediate, & finished. The market keeps track of the finished goods index most closely, as it represents prices for goods that are ready for sale to the end user.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

• Importance: !!
• Source: The University of Michigan.
• News Report Announcement Time: Preliminary: 10:00 ET on the second Friday of the month (data for current month): Final: 10:00 ET on the fourth Friday of the month (data for the current month).

The Michigan Index closely resembles the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index but offers two separate monthly readings - preliminary and final. Like the Conference Board Index, it features two sub-components: expectations and current conditions. The expectations aspect is further integrated into the Conference Board Leading Indicators Index.

Institute for Supply Management - ISMInstitute for Supply Management (ISM) - This organization was formerly known as NAPM: the name change took effect in January 2002. The ISM index functions as a composite measure reflecting nationwide manufacturing performance.

Levels over 50% point to a growing factory sector. Investors should track economy stats. They shape how investments do across types.

Traders track economic data like the ISM to grasp the market background. The ISM gives a close view of the manufacturing sector. It shows how active it is and where it's going.

Given that the manufacturing sector constitutes a significant contributor to cyclical economic fluctuations, reports pertaining to this industry carry substantial market weight. Furthermore, several sub-indices within this sector offer critical insights into prevailing commodity pricing and provide preliminary indications regarding the possibility of inflationary developments.

The Federal Reserve closely follows this information, which helps them decide what to do with interest rates when inflation is indicated in the data.

Leading Technical IndicatorsLeading Indicators - A composite index of 10 economic reports that frequently precede overall economic activity.

Traders need to pay attention to how the economy is doing because it affects how different kinds of investments will do.

By watching economic information like the index that shows how the economy is doing, traders can understand the setting for the different markets.

The point of the Leading Indicators index is to guess when the economy will change, like when recessions end and recoveries start. Interestingly, stock prices are a leading indicator in this specific index.

Import and export prices cover costs of foreign-made goods entering the US. They also include prices of US-made goods sold overseas.

These prices reflect inflation trends in the internationally traded products. Changes in import & export prices are a valuable measure of the inflation here(locally and domestically) & abroad. Furthermore, the data reports can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds & the dollar.

Inflation often raises interest rates. This hurts stock prices. Investors can track import prices to watch this risk to their investments.

IFO Business Climate in industry & tradeIFO Business Climate in industry and trade - The IFO Business Climate Index gives an early look at how the economy is doing in Germany. Each month, the IFO Institute asks more than 7,000 businesses in both parts of Germany how they see their current business situation (good, okay, or bad) and what they expect for the next half-year (better, same, or worse).

The replies are weighted according to the importance of the industry & aggregated. The percentage shares of the positive & negative response to both of the questions are balanced & a geometric mean is formed from the balances divided according to east & west Germany. The series of balances thus derived are linked to a base year (currently 1991) & seasonally adjusted.

The APICS Survey provides a composite index analyzing national manufacturing conditions. This survey offers an in-depth perspective on activities within the manufacturing sector.

This survey isn't as famous as the ISM, but it can also show which way production is going. The diffusion index doesn't always move the same way as the ISM index each month, but sometimes they do go in the same direction.

Manufacturing plays a big role in the economy, so traders use it to gauge the overall setting for investments. An index at 50 shows no growth. Each 10-point rise points to about 4% gains in manufacturing.

Beige Book - Since 1970, banks within districts have been producing summaries that reflect the economic conditions in their areas. Initially, this Red Book was created solely for policymakers and was not meant for the general public.

It was released to the public in 1983. To show this change, the color of the cover was changed, and people started calling it the Beige Book.

The Beige Book is published two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting, happening eight times a year. Each Federal Reserve Bank compiles anecdotal evidence about current economic conditions in its region from reports provided by bank and branch directors, along with insights from industry leaders, economists, market analysts, and other key sources.

The Beige Book covers data by region and industry. One Federal Reserve Bank, on a rotating schedule, pulls together a full overview from the 12 district reports. Many see this report as a clue to the Fed's next steps in its meeting.

Blue Book Report - The day after the green book comes out, FOMC members get the blue book. Every blue book gives the Board staff's take on how monetary and financial conditions look for the few months around the meeting. It starts with a rundown of all the key policy moves - think Federal Funds rate, reserve numbers, and monetary aggregates. Then, it lays out two or three different policy scenarios for what might happen before the next meeting. For the February and July meetings, the blue book includes two extra sections to help the Committee prep for the Humphrey Hawkins testimony. The first extra bit runs longer-term simulations - usually covering the next five or six years - and shows how different assumptions (like changes in fiscal policy, the natural unemployment rate, or how fast the market reacts to new inflation expectations) could change the outlook. The second special section sets out alternative annual targets for how much the monetary aggregates should grow.

Red Book - Published each Tuesday, this report shows the sales details from about 30 US stores from the week before and compares them to the month before. It is always a prediction that counts for what households want, but it changes a lot, especially when looking at the more or less important months for retail business.

Business InventoriesBusiness Inventories - The total money value of all goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. How inventories compare to sales is a key sign of which way production might go in the short term.

Traders watch the economy close since it shapes investment results. Growing inventories hint at business hope for stronger sales ahead.

By closely examining the ratio comparing current inventory levels against recent sales figures, traders can forecast whether production demand is likely to increase or decrease in the near term. This business inventory data serves as a valuable predictive tool for gauging the direction of the economy.

Chain Stores SalesChain Stores Sales - This is the total monthly sales from big stores like department, chain, discount, and clothing stores. The stores themselves report their sales. Chain store sales show how well retail sales and consumer spending are doing.

What people spend money on makes up two-thirds of the whole economy. So, if you know what people are buying, you will have a good idea of how the economy is doing.

Sales numbers are shown as how much they've changed from the same month last year. It's important to know how good sales were last year to understand this year's numbers. Also, sales are usually given for similar stores after company mergers.

Consumer sentimentConsumer sentiment - This is a survey from the University of Michigan that asks people how they feel about the current and future state of the economy.

Each month, surveys reach 500 consumers. Consumer sentiment ties straight to spending power. Spending makes up two-thirds of the economy. Markets watch what consumers do and plan next.

When people are more sure about the economy and how well they are doing with their own money, they tend to spend more. Considering this, it is clear how this way of checking what consumers think shows how the economy is doing.

Fluctuations in consumer sentiment and retail sales do not necessarily align month by month.

Current trading accountCurrent account - The Measure of the country's international trade balance in terms-of goods, services & unilateral transfers. The level of the current trading account, as well as the market trends in exports & imports, are followed as technical indicators of trends in foreign trade.

How the U.S. trades with other countries gives important hints about the economy here and in other places. This info can affect all trading markets, especially the dollar's value.

Factory orders refer to the dollar value of new orders for both durable and nondurable manufacturing goods. This metric provides more comprehensive information than the durable goods orders reported one or two weeks earlier in the month.

The order information tells us how busy factories will be in the months ahead as they work to fulfill the orders. This report shows how much demand there is for things like refrigerators and cars, but also for things like cigarettes and clothing.

Beyond monitoring new orders, analysts track unfilled orders, which serve as an indicator of production backlogs. Shipment data reveals prevailing sales volumes, while inventory levels offer insight into the current and prospective strength of production.

This report covers factory sector news, a big part of the economy. It shapes trader choices and investments.

The Green Book, prepared by staff at the Board of Governors five days prior to an FOMC meeting, offers interpretations of various economic and financial variables and is divided into two sections.

The green book's first section covers key US economy shifts. It looks at growth, prices, interest rates, money and credit flows, plus global trade. These changes span recent months or quarters.

This part also gives predictions for some things that might happen in the next 6 to 8 quarters. The second part of the green book gives more information about recent changes.

It tells about patterns in jobs, production, and prices, as well as what affects them. This part also breaks down each area, talking about things like housing, car production, inventories, and how much money federal, state, and local governments are spending.

The review covers all sorts of things happening in the domestic financial markets, like credit trends for banks, other financial groups, businesses, and consumers.

Also, things happening around the world are looked at closely, with comments on things like how much is traded, money trades between countries, how money values change, & how well different countries are doing financially.

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