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Economic Reports for Bitcoin: Medium Market Drivers

Durable Goods Bitcoin Trade Orders

  • Importance: !!
  • Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
  • News Report Announcement Time: 8:30 EST around the 26th of the month (data for the prior month).

The durable goods orders report reflects the monetary value of orders, shipments, and unfulfilled orders for goods lasting three years or more. This data acts as a leading indicator of manufacturing activity and economic health.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence

  • Importance: !!
  • Source: The Conference Board.
  • News Report Announcement Time: 10:00 EST on the last Tuesday of the month (data for the current month).

The Conference Board conducts a monthly survey of 5000 households to determine the level of consumer confidence. The report can be sometimes instrumental in foreseeing very quick shifts in consumption patterns, however, most of the small changes in the stock index are just noises. Only index moves of at least five points should be seen as significant.

Industrial Production

  • Importance: !!
  • Source: Fed Reserve.
  • News Report Announcement Time: 9:15 ET around the 1fifth of the month (data for the month prior).

The Industrial Production index serves as a stable measure of the tangible output from a nation's factories, mines, and utilities. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes the largest part of this total, can be reliably forecasted by analyzing the total hours worked in manufacturing from the employment data.

Initial Jobless Claims

  • Importance: !!
  • Source: The Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor.
  • News Report Announcement Time: 8:30 EST each Thursday (data report for the week ended prior Saturday).

Initial jobless claims estimate the number of filings for the state jobless benefits(the number of people out of jobs). This report provides a timely, but often misleading, indicator of the current momentum of the economy, with increases (decreases) in claims potential signaling slowing (accelerating) job growth.

There are 2 other statistics in this report - the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate: neither is watched closely by the market. Some analysts track the number of people receiving state benefits from month to month as a tutorial for job growth, though this series has got a poor record in predicting the monthly employment report. The insured unemployment rate changes little on a weekly basis and is never a factor for the market.

International Trade

  • Importance: !!
  • Source: The Census Bureau & the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.
  • News Report Announcement Time: 8:30 EST around the 20th of the month (data for 2 months prior).

The Trade Report is predominantly scrutinized for indicators regarding the trajectory of the overall trade balance. Nevertheless, developments in both the export and import figures for goods and services also warrant attention. Export data, specifically, is crucial for identifying signals that suggest an enhancement in domestic competitive standing and/or robust economic conditions abroad are stimulating U.S. growth. Import figures offer insight into domestic consumption, but due to this report's substantial time lag compared to other consumption-based metrics, it holds comparatively less value for this specific analytical purpose.

Changes in the monthly trade balance affect GDP predictions. Net exports vary a lot in GDP. The trade report offers the first hint on quarterly net exports.

Producer Price Index - PPI

  • Importance: !!
  • Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
  • News Report Announcement Time: Around the 11th of each month at 8:30 EST for the prior month.

The Producer Price Index measures the prices of products at the wholesale level. There are 3 general parts within PPI: raw, partly done, and completed. The market watches the completed goods index very closely, because it shows the prices of items that are ready to be sold to the customer.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

  • Importance: !!
  • Source: The University of Michigan.
  • News Report Announcement Time: Preliminary: 10:00 ET on the second Friday of the month (data for current month): Final: 10:00 ET on the fourth Friday of the month (data for the current month).

The Michigan consumer index bears a strong resemblance to the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence, although the former releases two figures monthly: an initial estimate and a final confirmation. Similar to the Conference Board metric, it is composed of two sub-indices: one for future expectations and one for present circumstances. The expectations sub-index feeds into the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators index.

Institute for Supply Management, known as ISM, used to be called NAPM. The name switch happened in January 2002. The ISM index blends data to gauge U.S. manufacturing health.

Survey readings exceeding the 50% mark signify an expansion within the manufacturing sector. It remains crucial for investors to closely monitor economic indicators as these directly influence the performance trajectory of diverse asset classes.

Traders track economic data like the ISM report to grasp the market scene. It offers a close view of manufacturing activity and future paths.

Since the manufacturing industry sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has got a big influence on the markets. More than one of the ISM sub-indexes provides insight on commodity prices & clues regarding to the potential for developing inflation.

The Federal Reserve closely monitors this specific data release, as it informs their decisions regarding the trajectory of interest rates when inflation indicators become apparent in this economic reporting.

Leading IndicatorsLeading Indicators = An index made up of ten economic reports that usually come before the overall economy changes.

Traders must pay close attention to the economy because it determines how different kinds of investments will do.

By analyzing leading economic indicators, investors gain insight into the current and projected environment across various financial markets.

The Leading Indicators index is specifically engineered to forecast economic shifts, such as recessions and recoveries. Notably, stock prices themselves constitute one of the leading fundamental indicators within this specific stock index framework.

Import and export pricesImport & export prices - The prices of goods which are brought into the US but produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but produced locally and domestically.

These prices show how inflation is affecting products traded worldwide. Changes in prices for imports and exports are a good way to measure inflation here and in other countries. The data in these reports can also directly affect financial markets like bonds and the dollar.

Inflation leads to higher interest rates & that's bad news for shares as well. By monitoring inflation measures such as import prices, traders can keep an eye on this menace to their trading portfolio.

The IFO Business Climate Index measures economic health in Germany for industry and trade. It acts as an early signal for traders. Each month, the IFO Institute asks over 7,000 companies in west and east Germany about their current situation. They rate it as good, fair, or poor. They also share views on the next six months: better, same, or worse.

Replies get weighted by industry weight and then combined. Positive and negative shares for both questions stay balanced. A geometric mean comes from those balances, split by east and west Germany. The resulting balance series links to a base year, now 1991. It also gets adjusted for seasons.

The APICS Survey is a composite diffusion index showing national manufacturing conditions. It gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector.

This survey gets less buzz than the ISM. Yet it points to production shifts. The index does not always match ISM moves. But they align at times.

Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, investors can get a feel for the general economic environment for various different investments. An index level of 50 means no growth, but every 10 points signals gains of 4% in manufacturing.

The Beige Book summarizes economic conditions from district banks. They have done this since 1970. At first, called the Red Book, it was just for policymakers. The public did not see it.

It was released to the public in 1983. To show this change, the color of the cover was changed, and people started calling it the Beige Book.

The Beige Book comes out twice before each FOMC meeting, eight times each year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gets informal information on current financial conditions in its area through reports from bank leaders, interviews with business people, economists, market experts, and other people.

The Beige Book puts all this info together by area and business type. The reports from the twelve areas are put together by a chosen Fed Reserve Bank that changes. The report is mainly used to guess what the Fed might do at their next meeting.

Blue Book Report - Blue Book - A day after the green book, the FOMC members receive the blue book. All blue books present the Board staff's view of monetary and financial developments for the few months surrounding the meeting in question. Each book first reviews the recent developments in the policy variables, including the Federal Funds rate, reserve measures, & the monetary aggregates. The blue book also presents 2 or 3 alternative policy scenarios for the upcoming inter meeting period. The blue books written for the February and July meetings contain 2 extra sections to assist and help the Committee in its preparation for Humphrey Hawkins testimony. The first of these sections provides longer term simulations, covering next five or six years. This section also offers and provides estimates of how different assumptions about various factors such as fiscal policy, the equilibrium unemployment rate, or the speed of adjustment to changed inflation expectations would affect the predicted outcome. The second additional section in the February & July blue books sets out alternative annual ranges for the expansion of the monetary aggregates.

The Red Book comes out every Tuesday and shares the exact sales numbers from around 30 US stores from the previous week, which are then compared to the month before. This is always a prediction of what people will want, but the measurement can change a lot based on the important months for retail business.

Business Inventories - This metric represents the monetary value of stock held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The relationship between inventory levels and sales volume serves as a key fundamental indicator projecting the immediate future direction of production activity.

Traders should closely observe economic trends, as they significantly influence the performance of various investments. An increase in inventories may reflect business optimism regarding future sales growth.

The inventory-to-sales ratio shows if production will grow or shrink soon. Traders use this data to track economic health ahead of time.

Chain stores sales reflect the monthly sales volume from a variety of department, chain, discount, and apparel stores, reported by individual retailers. These sales figures serve as an indicator of overall retail sales and consumer spending.

Consumer spending contributes and accounts for a two-thirds of the overall economy, hence if you know what the consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed.

Sales are reported as a change from the same month a year ago. It's important to know how strong the sales actually were a year a go to make any sense of this year's sales. In addition, sales are usually reported for "comparable stores" in the case of company mergers.

Consumer sentiment refers to a survey from the University of Michigan. It measures people's views on the current economy and their outlook for future conditions.

Surveys hit 500 consumers monthly. Their mood ties straight to spending power. Spending drives two-thirds of the economy. Markets watch closely for hints on future behavior.

Increased consumer assurance regarding the economic outlook and their private financial standing correlates with a higher propensity to spend. With this in mind, it is easy to see how the index of the consumer attitudes gives an insight to the direction of the economy.

Fluctuations in consumer sentiment and retail sales do not align consistently from month to month.

Current accountCurrent trading account - A metric of a nation's global trade stability in goods, services, and unilateral transfers. The level of the current account, and likewise the patterns in exports & imports, are monitored as key indicators of trends in international commerce.

U.S. Trade with foreign countries hold important clues to economic trends here and abroad. The data can directly impact all the financial trading markets, but especially the fx value of the dollar.

Factory Orders - This data reflects the monetary value of new orders placed for both durable and non-durable manufactured goods. It offers more comprehensive insight than the durable goods orders report, which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.

Durable goods orders reveal factory activity in the months ahead. Manufacturers fill these orders. The report shows demand for items like refrigerators, cars, cigarettes, and clothing.

Beyond new orders, experts track pending ones. They signal production delays. Shipments show sales now. Stock levels hint at current and future output.

All in all, this report tells traders what to expect from the manufacturing industry sector, a major component/constituent of the economy & hence a major factor of influence on their investments.

Green BookGreen Book - The green book is prepared by the staff members at the Board of Governors 5 days in advance of an FOMC meeting. It presents the staff's interpretations on several economic & financial variables and is divided in to two parts.

The green book's first section covers U.S. economy updates. It reviews growth, prices, rates, money flows, credit, and global ties from recent months or quarters.

This section also presents and displays forecasts of a number of variables for the next 6 to 8 quarters. The second part of the green book provides additional info on recent developments.

It shows what's happening with jobs, production, and prices, plus what affects them. This part also looks at different areas one by one, like homes, car making, supplies, and how much money the government spends.

This report examines various developments in the domestic financial trading markets, including credit trends for banks, other financial intermediaries, non-financial businesses, and consumers.

At the end, check global news. Look at trade data, money flows, forex markets, and business in key foreign spots.

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