Fundamental Economic Reports in Bitcoin Trading: Medium Market Movers !!

Durable Goods Bitcoin Trade Orders

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Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
News Report Announcement Time: 8:30 EST around the 26th of the month (data for the prior month).

The durable orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (defined as those goods whose intended lifespan is 3 years or more). Orders are considered a leading fundamental indicator of manufacturing activity.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence

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Source: The Conference Board.
News Report Announcement Time: 10:00 EST on the last Tuesday of the month (data for the current month).

The Conference Board carries out a monthly survey of 5000 households to figure out the level of consumer confidence. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the stock index are just noise. Only index changes of at-least five points should be considered significant.

Industrial Production

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Source: Fed Reserve.
News Report Announcement Time: 9:15 ET around the 1fifth of the month (data for the month prior).

The index of Industrial Production is a fixed-weight measure of the physical output of the factories in a country, mines, & utilities. Manufacturing production, the biggest constituent of the overall total, can be accurately predicted using total manufacturing hours worked from the employment report.

Initial Jobless Claims

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Source: The Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor.
News Report Announcement Time: 8:30 EST each Thursday (data report for the week ended prior Saturday).

Initial jobless claims estimate the number of filings for the state jobless benefits(the number of people out of jobs). This report provides a timely, but often misleading, indicator of the current momentum of the economy, with increases (decreases) in claims potential signaling slowing (accelerating) job growth.

There are 2 other statistics in this report - the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate; neither is watched closely by the market. Some analysts track the number of people receiving state benefits from month to month as a tutorial for job growth, though this series has got a poor record in predicting the monthly employment report. The insured unemployment rate changes little on a weekly basis and is never a factor for the market.

International Trade

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Source: The Census Bureau & the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.
News Report Announcement Time: 8:30 EST around the 20th of the month (data for 2 months prior).

The trade report is most widely watched for trends in the overall trade balance. But trends in both exports and imports of goods & services bear watching as well. The export info in particular are important to watch for indications that a strengthening competitive position at home and/or strengthening economies overseas are boosting the U.S. Growth. The Imports data provides an indication of the domestic demand, but given the severe lag of this report relative to other consumption fundamental indicators, it is not particularly very valuable for this purpose.

The volatility in the monthly trade balance can play a crucial role in GDP forecasts. Net exports are a relatively volatile component of the GDP, & the trade report gives the only early clue to the net export performance each quarter.

Producer Price Index - PPI

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Source: Bureau of Labor statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
News Report Announcement Time: Around the 11th of each month at 8:30 EST for the prior month.

The Producer Price Index gauges prices of goods at the wholesale level. There are 3 broad sub-categories within PPI: crude, intermediate, & finished. The market keeps track of the finished goods index most closely, as it represents prices for goods which are ready for sale to the end user.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

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Source: The University of Michigan.
News Report Announcement Time: Preliminary: 10:00 ET on the second Friday of the month (data for current month); Final: 10:00 ET on the fourth Friday of the month (data for the current month).

Michigan index is almost identical to Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, though there are 2 monthly releases, a preliminary and final reading. Like the Conference Board index, it has two sub-indices - expectations & current conditions. The expectations index is a component of the Conference Board Leading Technical Indicators index.

Institute for Supply Management (ISM)Institute for Supply Management - ISM - Formerly referred to as the NAPM. Change was effective in January 2002. ISM is a composite diffusion index of the national manufacturing conditions.

Readings above 50 % indicate an expanding factory sector. Investors need to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform.

By tracking the economic date such as the ISM, traders will know what the economic environment is for the various different markets. The ISM generates a detailed look at the manufacturing industry sector, how busy it is and where things are headed.

Since the manufacturing industry sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has got a big influence on the markets. More than one of the ISM sub-indexes provides insight on commodity prices & clues regarding to the potential for developing inflation.

The Federal Reserve keeps a close watch on this data report which helps it to determine the direction of the interest rates when the inflation signals are flashing in these data.

Leading IndicatorsLeading Indicators = A composite index of ten economic reports that typically lead overall economic activity.

Traders need to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various different types of investments will perform.

By tracking economic info like the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic environment is for the various markets.

The index of Leading Indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy like recessions and recoveries. Incidentally, stock prices are one of the leading fundamental indicators in this index.

Import and export pricesImport & export prices - The prices of goods which are brought into the US but produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but produced locally and domestically.

These prices reflect inflationary trends in the internationally transacted products. Changes in import & export prices are a valuable gauge of the inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar.

Inflation leads to higher interest rates & that's bad news for stocks as well. By monitoring inflation measures such as import prices, traders can keep an eye on this menace to their trading portfolio.

IFO Business Climate in industry and tradeIFO Business Climate in industry and trade - IFO Business Climate Index is a-widely early trading indicator for economic development in Germany. Every month the IFO Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises in west & east Germany on their appraisals of the business situation (good/satisfactory/poor) and their expectations for the next six months (better/same/worse).

The replies are weighted in accordance to the importance of the industry & aggregated. The percentage shares of the positive & negative responses to both of the questions are balanced and a geometric average is formed from the balances divided according to east & west Germany. The series of balances thus derived are linked to a base year (currently 1991) and seasonally adjusted.

APICS SurveyAPICS Survey - Composite diffusion index of the national manufacturing conditions. The APICS survey generates a detailed look at the manufacturing industry sector.

This survey is less well known that the ISM, but also can indicate trends in production. The diffusion index does not move in tandem with the ISM index every month, but sometimes the two do move in same direction.

Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, investors can get a feel for the general economic environment for various different investments. An index level of 50 means no growth, but every 10 points signals gains of 4% in manufacturing.

Beige BookBeige Book - District banks have been printing out the summaries of the economic conditions in their districts since 1970. Initially this "Red Book" was prepared for policymakers only & wasn't intended for consumption by the public.

It was made public in 1983. To mark this change, the color of the cover was changed and the publication became referred to as the Beige Book.

Beige Book is released two weeks before each FOMC meeting eight times a year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its district through reports from bank & branch directors and interviews with key businessmen, economists, market experts, & other sources.

The Beige Book summarizes this information by district & sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Fed Reserve Bank on a rotating basis. The report is primarily seen as an indicator of how the Fed may act at its upcoming meeting.

Blue Book ReportBlue Book - A day after the green book, the FOMC members receive the blue book. All blue books present the Board staff's view of monetary and financial developments for the few months surrounding the meeting in question. Each book first reviews the recent developments in the policy variables, including the Federal Funds rate, reserve measures, & the monetary aggregates. The blue book also presents two or three alternative policy scenarios for the upcoming inter meeting period. The blue books written for the February and July meetings contain 2 extra sections to assist and help the Committee in its preparation for the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. The first of these sections provides longer-term simulations, covering the next five or six years. This section also offers and provides estimates of how different assumptions about various factors such as fiscal policy, the equilibrium unemployment rate, or the speed of adjustment to changed inflation expectations would affect the predicted outcome. The second additional section in the February & July blue books sets out alternative annual ranges for the growth of the monetary aggregates.

Red Book - Published every Tuesday, this report presents the detail sales of some 30 US stores produce the previous week and compared & analyzed to the previous month. It is always a forecast which counts for the request for the households but a rather volatile measurement taking in to consideration the more or less significant months for the details business.

Business InventoriesBusiness Inventories - Dollar amount of the inventories held by the manufacturers, wholesalers & retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important fundamental indicator of the near-term direction of the production activity.

Traders need to monitor the economy closely because it mostly dictates how various types of investments will perform. Rising inventories can be an indication of business optimism that sales will be growing in the coming months.

By looking at and analyzing the ratio of the inventories to sales, traders can see whether the production demands will expand or contract in the near future. The business inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for tracking the economy.

Chain Stores SalesChain Stores Sales - Monthly sales volumes from department, chain, discount & apparel stores. Sales are reported by the individual retailers. Chain store sales are an indicator of retail sales and consumer spending results.

Consumer spending contributes and accounts for a two-thirds of the overall economy, hence if you know what the consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed.

Sales are reported as a change from the same month a year ago. It's important to know how strong the sales actually were a year a go to make any sense of this year's sales. In addition, sales are usually reported for "comparable stores" in the case of company mergers.

Consumer sentimentConsumer sentiment - The Survey of consumer attitudes concerning both present situation as well as their expectations in regards to economic conditions carried out by the University of Michigan.

500 consumers are surveyed every month. The level of consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer spending contributes & accounts for a two-thirds of the overall economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they may behave in the near future.

The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it is easy to see how the index of the consumer attitudes gives an insight to the direction of the economy.

Changes in consumer sentiment & retail sales do not move in tandem month by month.

Current accountCurrent trading account - Measure of the country's international trade balance in goods, services and unilateral transfers. The level of the current account, & also the trends in exports & imports, are followed as indicators of the trends in foreign trade.

U.S. Trade with foreign countries hold important clues to economic trends here and abroad. The data can directly impact all the financial trading markets, but especially the fx value of the dollar.

Factory ordersFactory orders - Dollar level of new orders for manufacturing durable goods and non durable goods. It provides more complete info than durable goods orders which are reported 1 or 2 weeks earlier in the month.

Durable goods orders info show how busy the factories will be in coming months as manufacturers work to fill the orders. This report provides insight to the demand for not only hard goods such as refrigerators and cars, but non durables such as cigarettes & apparel.

In addition to new orders, analysts monitor unfilled orders, a fundamental indicator of the backlog in production. Shipments reveal current sales. Inventories give a handle on the strength of current & future production.

All in all, this report tells traders what to expect from the manufacturing industry sector, a major component/constituent of the economy & hence a major factor of influence on their investments.

Green BookGreen Book - The green book is prepared by the staff members at the Board of Governors 5 days in advance of an FOMC meeting. It presents the staff's interpretations on several economic & financial variables and is divided in to two parts.

The first part of the green book describes & interprets the significant developments in the U.S. Economic activity, prices, interest rates, flows of money and credit, & the international sector which have occurred in recent months or quarters.

This section also presents and displays forecasts of a number of variables for the next 6 to 8 quarters. The second part of the green book provides additional info on recent developments.

It describes trends in employment, production, and prices & the factors influencing them. This section also includes sector by sector analyzes, commenting on such areas as housing, motor vehicle production, inventories, and spending by federal, state, & local governments.

It reviews a range of developments in the domestic financial trading markets, including credit patterns for banks, other financial intermediaries, non-financial businesses, and consumers.

Finally, international developments are reviewed, with commentary on trade statistics, international financial trading transactions, fx markets, and economic activities in a number of several foreign countries.

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Fundamental Economic Reports in Bitcoin Trading: Medium Market Movers !!