Market Sentiment in Indices Trade

One of the factors that influence Indices movement is the prevailing market sentiments at any particular moment. The market sentiment is determined by a couple of things, among the common ones are:

Economic Outlook & Economic data reports
Monetary Policies - Such as Interest Rates & Inflation policies like Quantitative Easing

Short Term Market Sentiment - Economic Outlook & Economic Data Reports

Some of these factors & aspects will affect the shortterm market sentiment meaning they'll only cause some minor volatility in the market which will only take a couple of hours or day to fade out. These shortterm market sentiments are best utilized by trader to look for the best entry points for opening trade positions.

For example an economic report about unemployment rate in the EU zone may show that the unemployment rate went higher by about 1 % which in the short term might cause the EURO STOXX index to pull back due to and because of this short term volatility, but because other EU Zone European Union Zone economic data reports have been showing positive information that provides evidence of economic growth in the Euro Zone, the EURO STOXX index will resume its upwards trend direction soon after this short term volatility.

Most economic news data reports will mostly cause this type of shortterm market price volatility. The volatility might move the market in any particular direction in the short term, but what matters most is the Economic Outlook. For example if the market outlook for EU Zone European Union Zone is positive economic growth, then the general direction of the EU based indices will be upward despite the short term market volatility caused by economic data reports.

Long-term Market Sentiment - Monetary Policy

Apart from the economic environment outlook of a particular given economy which is the main determinant factor that determines the long term market sentiment for a specified stock index, monetary policy is the other determinant factor that determines the long term market sentiment of a particular stock index.

The two components of monetary policy are: Interest Rates Control and Inflation Control.

These two components determine the economic growth prospects for a country.

Interest Rates

Interest Rates determine the amount of credit available to people for doing business & the cost of this credit. Those countries with interest rate of 1% mean that it is very cheap to get credit in these countries & in general people can borrow more money, because it is cheap to borrow and these people can then do more business as they have more capital. If on other hand a country has an interest rate of 10% will mean that credit is not readily available to people to do business with & therefore people have less money to do business.

For this reason those countries with low interest rates mean that the market sentiment when trading the Indices of these countries will be positive as this low interest rate policy encourage economic growth.

Therefore the market sentiment for countries that have low interest rate levels will mean the longterm sentiment for these economies will be bullish.

However, a country with a good economic outlook & high interest rate policy will still have a bullish market sentiment. The low interest rate monetary policy is just one factor among many other factors that influence market sentiment.

Inflation Policy

The monetary policy of any economy also will be formulated to control inflation. The ideal optimum inflation level is between 2% to 5%.

Below 2 % a country will go in to deflation, where prices of items begin to drop to levels which can not sustain economic growth & a country faces the risk of economic slow-down.

Between 2% and 5% - meaning the price are high enough to sustain economic growth & at same time these prices are not too expensive to make the goods & services unaffordable to the consumers.

Above 6% - prices are starting to get expensive & becoming out of reach of consumers in terms of affordability, the higher the inflation level goes the more unaffordable the price of goods & services become, meaning less spending power from consumers, therefore meaning producers of good will not make enough sales & profits as the price of their goods is out of reach for the consumers because they have become too expensive & unaffordable. This is not good for economic growth, in fact this will also cause economic slow-down because goods are not moving as fast within an economy.

The art of controlling inflation is a delicate balancing act, too low and economic growth slows down, too high & economic growth also slows down, and this is why economies have to aim for the optimum inflation of between 2% and 5% to ensure the economic growth of their economy is bullish.

This is the explanation why the longterm market sentiment will be determined by the inflation control policy.

As a stocks trader you might not be aware of a country's monetary policy, but these policies are the main factors that determine the long term market sentiments of a particular Indices.

Example illustration of Long Term Sentiment Influenced by Monetary Policy

One example of a market move influenced by a monetary policy is the USA market - Dow Jones index which moved from 10,000 points upto 18,000 point influenced by Quantitative Easing Policy implemented by the FED after they had also take the monetary policy of decreasing interest rates.

Quantitative easing policy is a monetary policy aimed getting people to spend & at same time bring inflation levels up to the optimum levels. When FED started their Quantitative Easing - QE, policy, the American Indices all went up based on this market sentiment - an example is the Dow Jones index that went up from 10,000 point to 18,000 point.

At the same time when FED started proposing changes to their monetary policy in 2015 policy by raising their interest rates, the market sentiment started to shift & Indices started to take a break from the continued upwards trend. The upward market trend soon resumed after the prevailing monetary sentiment resumed after this speculation of interest rates hike was shelved for some time. All these market moves being influenced by the market sentiment that was being pushed by the America monetary policy.

Another example of monetary policy influencing the market indices was the EU Quantitative easing program announced/implemented in January 2015 after a series of EU interest rates reduction. Because of this policy the long term market sentiment for EU indices changed to bullish & between January and March all European Indices were all up significantly and poised to continue this upward trend even after the QE program was started in March.

Now this EU Quantitative Easing Policy which is to be carried throughout 2015 and 2016, will be the main Factor influencing the long term market of all European based Indices - Such as EURO STOXX, Germany DAX30, France CAC40, Italy FTSEMIB40, Netherlands AEX25 and Spain IBEX 25 Indices.

For Example, the Germany DAX 30 went up by 22,000 Points between January 2015 when this QE policy was announced & March 2015 when this program was started

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